Armathes
Armathes

Defense market analysis,
from the public record.

How much the Department of War (DoW) spends on a kind of work, who buys it, and who wins it can be answered from public contract awards. This guide sets out the questions a market study asks, the evidence for each, and how to read that evidence without overstating it.

Updated

The questions

Six questions, and the evidence for each.

QuestionEvidenceRead it carefully
How big is the market?Reported obligations on the contract awards in it, over a period you choose.

In the platformOverviewMarkets

An obligation is money committed, not a contract's full potential value. Ceilings are shown beside obligations, never added to them.
Is it growing?Obligations and award counts over time, and the markets and companies that grew most against the period before.

In the platformOverviewMarkets

The Department of War publishes awards about 90 days after they are made, so the latest months fill in late.
Who buys it?The commands and agencies awarding the money, ranked by obligations.

In the platformAgencies

Sources name buyers differently: USAspending names a component, SAM.gov an office's path. Armathes matches the two.
Who wins it?Companies ranked by obligations and award count, each with its awards, markets, and buyers.

In the platformCompetitorsCompare

A few large awards can carry a ranking. Read the award count, and the parent company where the record names one.
How is the money split?Award sizes: how many contracts are small, mid-sized, or very large, with the median beside the average.

In the platformAwardsMarkets

Awards below the import floor are not counted, so small purchases are under-represented.
Where does it flow?Obligations traced from each awarding agency, through the market, to the companies that receive them.

In the platformFlows

A market's flows count prime awards only. Subcontracts are not included.

Defining a market

14 capability markets.

A market is only as good as its edges. Armathes tags each award and notice by what it buys, starting from its Product and Service Code, the government’s own label for what was purchased, and shows the method behind each tag. A record can sit in more than one market. Each market has its own briefing: where its money comes from, who wins it, and what is open now.

  1. Drones & autonomyUncrewed aircraft, autonomous systems, and supporting capabilities.
  2. Missiles & munitionsMissile systems, interceptors, precision effects, and ammunition.
  3. Space systemsSpace vehicles, launch services, and orbital infrastructure.
  4. Cyber & softwareCyber defense, software, cloud infrastructure, and data systems.
  5. Sensors & electronic warfareRadar, sensing, communications, and electronic warfare.
  6. Maritime systemsShips, undersea systems, naval platforms, and sustainment.
  7. Air systemsAircraft, propulsion, aviation systems, and sustainment.
  8. Ground systemsLand vehicles, tactical mobility, and ground support.
  9. Construction & facilitiesConstruction, real property repair, and facility operations and services.
  10. Professional & engineering servicesEngineering, technical, management, advisory, and training support.
  11. Maintenance & repairMaintenance, repair, overhaul, installation, and modification of equipment.
  12. Medical & healthMedical equipment, pharmaceuticals, and health care services.
  13. Fuel & energyFuels, power, electrical distribution, and utilities.
  14. Logistics & suppliesTransportation, warehousing, spare parts, and general equipment and supplies.

Reading the numbers

Four rules behind every figure.

  • Obligations, not ceilings

    Totals add each award's reported obligations. A contract's ceiling, the base and all options, is what it could reach, and is never added in.

  • Dated when signed

    An award counts on the day it was signed, not spread over its term, and not on the day it was imported.

  • About 90 days late

    The Department of War publishes contract awards about 90 days after they are made. Each daily import rescans the last four months.

  • From $500,000

    Awards of $500,000 or more since the start of fiscal 2026, and research and development awards from $50,000.

For a worked example, Insights shows a fixed sample of fiscal 2023 Defense contract awards by market, buyer, and recipient. The platform holds the current records and the awards behind each figure.

Questions

Asked often

Where does defense spending data come from?
Contract awards are reported through the Federal Procurement Data System and published on USAspending.gov, the official source of federal spending data. War.gov announces contracts of $7.5 million and up each business day. Armathes imports both, and SAM.gov's notices, and links each figure to its records.
What is a capability market?
One of 14 groups Armathes sorts awards and notices into by what they buy, from drones and autonomy to logistics and supplies, starting from each record's Product and Service Code. A record can sit in more than one market, and the method behind each tag is shown.
Why do market totals add up to more than the whole?
Because one award can sit in more than one market. Each market's total is right on its own; adding markets together counts those awards twice.
Is a growth figure a forecast?
No. It compares obligations already reported in one period with the period before. It describes what was bought, not what will be.
Can I take the analysis with me?
Yes. Records and tables export to CSV, Excel, and PDF, within a monthly allowance for your organization.

A clearer view starts here

Start the conversation

Tell us what you build, and the market you want to understand.

Get in touch